Week #1: 310.0 lbs (37.4%)

One week down! I lost 11.4 lbs this week and 2.5% body fat, but I'm sure more than half of that was water. So much for the Mifflin St Jeor equation! A few years ago I found another equation that said I would burn about 12 kcal per lb, so if I add my walking to that (and use today's weight as the "initial" condition) I get another function that I think is more reasonable, and that I expect to trend well going forward:

w(t) = 130.229 + 184.468e^{–0.0257947t}, where t is in weeks.

If I plot this equation, the Mifflin St Jeor equation, and the data points, I get:

So, according to Mifflin St Jeor, I should lose only 2.0 lbs this week, but the new equation predicts 4.6 lbs, which sounds more realistic to me! I'll keep an eye on these curves, as well as a regression fit, into the next few weeks.